Dismal Job Numbers Coming for June

From the Washington Post:


The recession has directly hit more than half of the nation's working adults, pushing them into unemployment, pay cuts, reduced hours at work or part-time jobs, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

The story focuses on how the economic devastation will cause people to live more austerely and save more money, which would certainly be good.

"We're going to see much lower consumption going forward," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. He blames diminished spending on the drop in housing prices. "People who thought they had equity in their homes have seen it disappear," he said.

Again, consuming less is certainly not a bad thing - except that our largely service based economy is fueled by consumer spending. If people are saving money instead of buying new stuff or going out to eat, more jobs will be lost. And speaking of job creation....

The numbers look dismal for June:

The private sector of the U.S. economy added only 13,000 jobs in June, according to ADP employment services, a disappointing number that came in below estimates and portends bad things from the government's June jobs report due out Friday.

In May, according to ADP, the private sector added 57,000 jobs. But in June? Statistically, across a workforce as big as the United States'? Zero job growth; 13,000 new jobs is a statistically meaningless number.

It's also a realistically meaningless number, in the face of the 22 million jobs that need to be created in order for the US to even be approaching full employment.

There is no such thing as a "jobless recovery."


cross-posted at Main St.workingamerica.org